Tuesday, May 8, 2007

Why science?

Each one stress's his reasons to support this title; the following is my point of view!


Life is a Game; the nature of Game is Lottery. It means you gamble each time. Game has so many descriptions, I state my favorite picture. Games consist of players, rules and information. Players are individuals, agents, company, countries and cartels. Rules mean strategists, constraints and consequents. Information means observed utility, observed strategists and expectation. For simplification, thinks we have two players: developed countries which are rich and expert and developing countries which are poor and green. Players can coordinate or not. Information is perfect. It is a gamble. Rich one has K1 coins and poor one has K2 coins. If H faces up in each flip rich one win M1 and poor one lose M1. If T faces up in each flip rich one lose M2 and poor one win M2. The coin face up H with probability P. I interpret the first endowment by real capital (K), the probability means the accumulation of knowledge and the reward of game means the development in economics. First assume that M2=M1=1 and K1=100 and K2=5 and P=0.9. Just about K2 and K1 is the ratio of capital accumulation in the rivals and the P=0.9 obtain from the ratio of paper published. We are interested the time of bankruptcy? When the capitals of poor countries become equal to zero?

This is a simple game that can be solved by stochastic process. The poor country will lose after …… step and the probability of poor to win is less than ….. What happen if the players have the same knowledge? P=0.5.